Every so often in the news, you hear about the winner of some gigantic lottery. This person won $20,000,000 in the multi mega millions lottery sweep stakes. Their life is forever changed and they never have to be concerned about money anymore. Actually, they now have to be very concerned about money and if they do not, disaster, bankruptcy, and running from creditors will be the next step. Guessing about anything, particularly money, is generally not a good idea.
Or there is the night before a school exam. You haven’t studied and you cram for an hour. You also cram for a few minutes before the test. When you get your test, it is the equivalent of you being placed in front of stone tablets with egyptian hieroglyphics written and you are being asked to translate. In this case you could say, “The tablets say the cows ate up all the nachos and boy did they taste good.” You could also say, “The tablets say that the Egyptians were an ancient people and had tombs with mummies in them and they built the pyramids.” The second is more of an educated guess, but in realtiy, in both cases, you are really talking out of your you know what. You are guessing in all its glory. You do not have knowledge of what exactly is needed.
Ok, so what’s the problem with guessing?
In most cases, guessing is not the most efficient way to approach a situation. It leaves things to chance and luck, usually with very low chances of success. Ever taken a test that you didn’t study for and you didn’t know much about? Chances are you got a very low grade. Yes, there are some geniuses who can probably wing it and ace the test anyways, but these are geniuses, half of a half of a percent.
It is much easier to guess at something right away without doing any research or studying on it. But in the end, all you have really done is just sloppily eliminated one wrong way of doing something. I have heard many people give the example of approaches to doing something as it relates to ‘ready-aim-fire’. I will use this example. I like it and I think it fits.
Imagine you are holding a sniper rifle like the marine in this picture. And you have to hit many targets with this weapon and hit them dead on – or your mission will not be complete. You also have a limited number of shots and a limited amount of time. Now think for a moment what would happen if this marine decided to just stand up, start pointing his weapon around, and firing at random, hoping he hits his targets?
There’s a good chance he would be out of ammunition (the stuff that his rifle shoots), and have missed his mark on most, if not all, his targets. Not only that, there is a chance that he could hurt anyone that is around him because of the danger his guessing with this weapon is causing. He may not even realize he has hurt those people either because of the long range of his weapon. He was just hoping that he hit all his targets and meant no harm to any people that were around.
That’s right, he was just hoping he hit his targets and didn’t really realize he could potentially hurt other people. This is one scenario that could happen. And it is an all too common scenario in our lives today. The abundance of guessing and not having a sure knowledge leave our lives to random chance. This is a scary thing! Let’s look at some theoretical examples to illustrate this point.
- I’d like to start a business and become a millionaire. I’ll just get an equity loan on my house, a small business loan, max out my credit cards, and hire a bunch of people. Maybe this will work out for me.
- Gosh, I’d like to lose weight. There’s good foods out there, but I can’t really be bothered to eat them. Besides, I don’t know how to cook and I don’t know what the best foods for me are or how much to eat or where to buy them.
- I’m so excited to get married soon. Me and my wife are going to have a wonderful marriage. We’re going to have kids and live happily ever after.
- I just can’t find love. Everybody I get involved with is a jerk. What is wrong with me?
- I just don’t feel good. I’m tired, feel sick all the time, and am not happy, what do I do?
These (and many more are situations in life) are often handled by taking the approach that our marine friend here could take. And that is to just fire randomly and hope for the best. In the end, the likely outcome is to be worse off than before and have made no real progress.
The disaster of guessing is realized usually after an unwanted conclusion of what is trying to be figured out. This conclusion may be a business that has failed or is on the brink of failing. It may be being overweight to the point of being uncomfortable. It may be after being married for a long time realizing that you aren’t compatible with your spouse or that marriage is not for you. Perhaps it is seeing countless failed relationships in your life and wondering what is wrong. Or you may feel sick all the time and generally just not be happy.
Regardless of what it is, it must be realized that the majority of us have people in our lives that are close to us, are our friends, or are people that rely on us for things (such as a job or being provided food and shelter). Be very careful about simply guessing and hoping things work out. Take into careful consideration all the angles you are affecting with your decisions. By doing this, you will avoid conflict and unpleasent circumstances.
The general point here is that the general way to go through life seems to be a pattern of just getting by and seeing what happens. I believe the truly successful people don’t do very much guessing. Sure there may be some trial and error. But I believe that the great leaders and the people who are really successful in this world, those are the people who are taking a different approach. They are realizing truths, getting educated, increasing in intelligence, and make decisions with sound evidence and support. It is this which I would like to talk about now.
Our marine friend, with the sniper rifle in hand, can take a different approach to hitting his targets. He can get into a comfortable firing position. He can get his balance and focus his eye into his gun scope. He can be very observant of his environment and any sign of moving targets or targets that are fake. He can observe where other people are so as not to potentially injure them while shooting. He can take many different precautions.
As he trains and takes all these precautions, his awareness will allow him to have a much better chance of hitting his targets. Sure, he may not hit any of his targets still. He may only hit a few. But he has a better chance to hit at least some, if not all of them by taking the necessary steps to prepare and educate himself. Making the decision after having control over himself and his environment will give him focus and increase the odds of success.
What We Can All Do
To reduce guessing, there are many things that can be done. All guessing eliminators require work. You cannot sit on your hands watching TV all day, or playing video games all day and expect that you are going to have success in your endeavors (unless you are a video game tester or some profession like that). This is the hard part. Even I struggle with it. I mean, who wants to spend their free time reading, learning, and finding out what other people are doing? Well, for true success and guess elimination, this is what is required. The guessing eliminators are:
- Increasing education through study of online material, the best books, meaningful collaboration with others, and the observance of other people.
- Maintaining health through proper eating, exercise, rest, and the study of what is good for our bodies and what is not.
- Quiet and peaceful meditation in order to orient what our goals and dreams are. Careful thought on adapting to situations.
These three things are very powerful. Are they easy to do? No they are not. Like I said, I struggle with them just like I’m sure the majority of you struggle with them. But I know what they are and I take time to do them. There is no simple quick fix to guesing in our lives. Each problem has a solution. But that solution is a whole of things that must be done. Drjerm exists to provide the whole puzzle that must be put together before challenges can really start being overcome.
By educationg yourself, maintaining good health, and constantly meditating and seeking to understand yourself, others, and your path in life, you will begin to see things otherwise hidden. You will begin to see solutions to problems. I am doing my blog and website here at Drjerm. I face challenges with doing it. I started off by guessing. But I’ve realized that this isn’t going to work too well. Now I have a different approach. The material I create I realize is for people looking for answers in life. Anything I create is something I believe is a direct answer to questions people are having.
Do I still have things to figure out. Of course! I am still working on the whole getting visitors to my website and increasing traffic thing. I find many website owners struggling with this. My website gets about 15 visitors a day right now. I would love to increase this to 100 or 500 or more! To do this, I am coming up with ideas such as business cards I can leave with people, word of mouth through my family and friends, and increasing the quality of material on my website and blog.
Does this mean I will succeed? I believe it does and that eventually I will have a heavily trafficed website and blog. But it may take a long while and much more education for myself. I may not see success for some time. But I believe I am on the right track. I’ve learned being upfront and honest about yourself is important and I’ve done that. Doing Google videos is important and I am doing that. I figured out how to sign up for Google Adsense and I am doing that. I signed up as an Amazon affiliate and I have relevant products on my site now. Slowly over time as I discover more resources, I will have more that I can do, and eventually, I will hit that ‘sweet spot’ where things just start rolling.
The main thing is if you do not know something, find out what other people have to say about it. Draw your own conclusions about whether you think what was said is worthwhile. Make decisions based on evidence where possible. I know that with effort and faith, that you can avoid guessing and start making powerful decisions!
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